Global Lithium Demand Could Exceed 13 Million Tonnes by 2050: Wood Mackenzie

Global lithium demand could exceed 13 million tonnes by 2050 under an accelerated energy transition, more than double base case projections, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest Energy Transition Outlook for Lithium.

Without significant new investment, supply deficits could emerge as early as 2028. Even under Wood Mackenzie’s base case scenario, existing supply projects are unlikely to meet demand beyond the mid-2030s, highlighting the need for sustained investment across the value chain.

Allan Pedersen, Research Director at Wood Mackenzie, said, “The lithium market is heading into a supply crunch much sooner than many industry players expect. Under ambitious climate scenarios, we see deficits emerging from 2028. The industry needs to act now, as governments progress policies towards Net Zero. Projects approved today will determine market balance in the critical 2030s.”

Electrification is expected to significantly accelerate lithium demand in the coming decades. According to modeling by Wood Mackenzie, four energy transition pathways outline varying supply-demand outcomes through 2050, with lithium demand projected to range from 5.6 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (Mt LCE) under a Delayed Transition scenario to 13.2 Mt LCE in a Net Zero scenario.

Under the Delayed Transition pathway, the lithium market is projected to remain adequately supplied until 2037, after which deficits are expected to emerge. In contrast, the Country Pledges scenario anticipates supply shortfalls beginning around 2029, necessitating an additional 6.7 Mt LCE of supply by 2050 to meet projected demand. The most aggressive trajectory, the Net Zero scenario, forecasts deficits starting as early as 2028 and persisting through mid-century, with approximately 8.5 Mt LCE of additional supply required by 2050 to bridge the gap.

Electric Vehicles (EVs) remain the primary driver of demand growth, accounting for 72-80 percent of lithium consumption across scenarios. EV penetration reaches approximately 75 percent by 2040 under the Country Pledges scenario and 95 percent under the Net Zero scenario.

The report also noted that rechargeable batteries across all applications account for 96-98 percent of lithium consumption by mid-century.